The year is 2027. A time of innovation and technological progress, but also a time of chaos. What will happen to the cryptocurrency market in 2027? (For those unfamiliar, it’s line From the 2011 video game, Deus example)
Long-term forecasting is notoriously difficult, but it’s a good thought experiment. One year is too short for fundamental change, but five years is enough to change everything.
Here are the most unexpected and outrageous things that could happen in the next five years.
1. Metaverse does not rise
of The metaverse is a hot topic, but most people have little idea of what it actually consists of. A holistic virtual world that accommodates a large number of users, has its own economy, is created by the participants themselves, and features unprecedented interoperability. A wide variety of applications can (in theory) be integrated into the metaverse, including games, video conferencing applications, driver’s license issuing services, and more.
This definition makes it clear that the metaverse is not a very new phenomenon. Games and social networks that include most of the above features have been around for quite some time. Indeed, interoperability is an issue that needs to be taken seriously. Being able to easily transfer digital assets (or digital identities) between games without being tied to a particular platform would have been very useful.
However, the metaverse cannot meet all needs. There is absolutely no reason to include some services in the metaverse. Some services remain orphaned because operators do not want to relinquish control.
The “metaverse” is about to happen, but I don’t believe that existing companies’ attempts to deliberately create a metaverse are going nowhere. https://t.co/tVUfq4CWmP
—vitalik.eth (@VitalikButerin) July 30, 2022
There are also technical aspects to consider. In the 1980s and his 90s cyberpunk culture, the metaverse was assumed to mean total immersion. Such immersion is currently believed to be possible only when using virtual reality glasses. VR hardware gets better every year, but it’s not what we expected. VR remains a niche phenomenon, even among hardcore gamers. The majority of normal people would never wear such glasses to call their grandmother or sell cryptocurrencies on an exchange.
True immersion requires technological breakthroughs such as smart contact lenses or NeuralinkIt is highly unlikely that these technologies will be widely used five years from now.
2. Wallets will become “super apps”
active Decentralized Finance (DeFi) Users are forced to deal with dozens of protocols these days. Wallets, interfaces, exchanges, bridges, loan protocols — there are hundreds and growing every day. Having to live with such an array of technologies is inconvenient even for advanced users. When it comes to the prospect of mass adoption, such a situation is even more unacceptable.
For regular users, it’s ideal when the maximum number of services can be accessed from a limited number of universal applications. The best choice is if it is directly integrated into your wallet. Storage, exchange, transfer to other networks, staking — why go to dozens of different sites to access such a service if all the necessary operations can be performed using a single interface? Do you need access?
Users don’t care which exchange or bridge they use. They only care about security, speed and low fees. Quite a few of his DeFi protocols will eventually become backends for popular wallets and interfaces.
3. Bitcoin will become a unit of account equivalent to the US dollar and the euro
Money has three main roles as a means of payment, a store of value, and a unit of account. Many cryptocurrencies, mostly stablecoins, are used as a means of payment. Bitcoin (Bitcoin) and — to a lesser extent — the ether (ethereum) is used as a store of value between cryptocurrencies. However, the US dollar is still the world’s primary unit of account. Everything is valued in dollars, including Bitcoin.
The true triumph of sound currency is heralded when cryptocurrencies take over the role of unit of account. Bitcoin is currently a prime candidate for this role. Such a victory means a big mental change.
43% increase in wheat in the first five months of the year
Nat Gas 155% since January, +10% today
Let’s see how “consumers stay strong”.
Fight inflation with inflation, print more lol pic.twitter.com/b19becqa2x
— Pentosh (lead the cow to the butcher) (@Pentosh1) June 6, 2022
What will it take in the next five years to make this possible?
A sharp decline in confidence in the US dollar and the euro is a prerequisite for cryptocurrencies to act as basic units of account. Western authorities have already done a lot to undermine this trust by printing trillions of dollars in fiat currency. fuel abnormally high inflation, freezing hundreds of billions of reserves in sovereign countries, etc. This may just be the beginning.
What if actual inflation turns out to be much worse than predicted? What if the economic crisis drags on? What if there is a new epidemic? What if the conflict in Ukraine spreads to neighboring countries? These are all possible scenarios. Of course, there are extremes, but it is possible.
4. At least half of the top 50 cryptocurrencies will fall
The list of top cryptocurrencies is likely to change radically. Ethereum Classic (etc) has been kicked off the list, and projects that now seem to hold their own are not only dethroned, but may disappear entirely.
Some stablecoins will definitely sink. A new one will take its place. Cardano (ADA) slides down the list and officially becomes a living corpse. The project is progressing painfully slowly. The developers don’t seem to see this as a problem, they see it as a benefit.
5. The cryptocurrency market will fragment along geographic boundaries
Cryptocurrencies are global by default, but not immune to individual states. The state always has an edge and an extra trick up its sleeve. Many regions (US, European Union, China, India, Russia, etc.) have already introduced or are threatening to introduce strict regulation of cryptocurrencies.
Factors of international competition are superimposed on internal state motives.Several Crypto Projects Launched When Russia Hits Harsh Sanctions Restrict Russian users from accessing services Or even block their funds. This scenario may play out again in the future with respect to China.
It’s not hard to imagine a future where parts of the crypto market work in favor of some countries and are closed to others. We are already living in such a future, at least to some extent.
Opinions expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. This article is for general information purposes and is not intended, and should not be construed as legal or investment advice.