Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal says he believes 2023 will be a positive year for risk assets and cryptocurrencies.
Pal also looks at how past market cycles have reacted to signals from the Fed.
“We’re framing it this way this time. So the last time the Federal Reserve stopped raising rates was in 2018. I think it was in August 2019, and there was no rate cut. The moment the Fed went on hold, the market shot up, they were down about 30%, then recovered, so not much different than they are today.
Looking ahead next year, the S&P is about 10%, the Nasdaq about 14%, [tech stocks like ARK] It was about 18%, so that was good. Bitcoin was 100%, but that was after a 400% rise…
So I think it’s going to be a positive year, but at some point it’s a volatile year where you’re like, ‘Oh my god, it’s going super straight forward’ and then I’m like, ‘Oh my god, that’s us back. It’s like, “It’s all going to die.” You’ll look back and say, ‘Okay, I survived and I actually made some money.'”
Pal also commented on the overall macro environment, saying he believes we’re in the midst of a “usual recession.”
“In my opinion [what] What we’re really here for is a run-of-the-mill recession triggered by Federal Reserve rate hikes and price spikes. “
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $23,671 while Ethereum is trading at $1,629.
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