This isn’t the first time the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has rejected a proposal for a Bitcoin exchange-traded product (ETP), but various financial institutions are continuing to work on it. Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Trust on January 25th at Cboe BZX Exchange Bitcoin ETP also failed..
SEC letter Release On February 8, the exchange held no responsibility to demonstrate that the fund is “designed to prevent fraud and manipulation” and “protects the interests of investors and the public”. I pointed out.
The Bitcoin Spot ETP proposal has never been approved by the SEC and such products are not available in the US market but exist in the European market. By investigating the prices of ETPs traded in the European market, you can gain good insights into whether fraud and manipulation are possible.
To investigate whether concerns about SEC fraud and manipulation are justified, this article will cover past prices of three ETPs listed in Europe and Bitcoin spots from 18 exchanges. Compare price history to see if there are significant price gaps that can cause market manipulation.
SEC’s main concerns
From a technical perspective on the BZX Exchange proposal, there were two major concerns raised by the SEC.
(1) No data or analysis was provided to support the argument that arbitrage between Bitcoin platforms helped to coordinate global Bitcoin prices with each other, hindered operations and eliminated price differences between markets. It does not show how closely Bitcoin prices are coordinated between the various Bitcoin exchanges or how quickly arbitrage of price discrepancies.
(2) The exchange has not demonstrated that the proposed methodology for calculating the index makes the proposed ETP resistant to fraud or manipulation. Specifically, the exchange has not assessed the potential impact of spot platforms not included in the index’s constituent Bitcoin platforms on the Bitcoin price used to calculate the index.
Historical data from three ETPs (from Google Finance) to see if the above issues exist and if the operation is possible within the ETPs listed in the European market: Listed On the SIX Swiss Exchange Comparison Bitcoin spot prices from exchanges (data from) Cryptowatch).
- WisdomTree Bitcoin ETP (BTCW-USD)
- 21 Share Bitcoin ETP (SWX: ABTC-USD)
- Coinbase Physical BTCETP (SWX: BITC-USD)
The correlation between Bitcoin ETPs and spot prices suggests that there is a price gap.
As explained in the BZX Exchange proposal, index calculations are based on the last 5 minutes of volume weighted median (VWMP) from the 5 exchanges Bitstamp, Coinbase, Gemini, itBit and Kraken. I will...
A very simple and basic attempt to duplicate the index calculation with the best effort will use daily spot prices from 4 of the 5 exchanges mentioned above (Bitstamp, Coinbase, Gemini, Kraken). ..
Since the Bitcoin ETP price scale is often different from the Bitcoin spot price, all charts use daily percentage changes (or daily returns) to make it easier to compare price discrepancies. ..
The graph below shows a comparison of daily returns between each of the three ETPs and the sum of the Bitcoin spot prices calculated from the four exchanges using the volume-weighted median method.
The scatter plot on the left shows how close the ETP price is to the spot price. If the two are perfectly aligned, all points should hit the dashed blue line. The plot on the right compares the rate of return for the day and also plots the difference between the two.
Comparing the WisdomTree ETP and spots, most points in the scatter plot are within a +/- 5% radius, but there are certainly some significant price differences outside this radius. One day for three months, the daily return difference between ETPs and spot prices (blue dashed line) exceeded 10%.
It is also interesting to note that the volatility of percentage changes in ETP prices tends to be higher than spots. The graph below comparing Coinbase Physical Bitcoin (blue line) and Bitcoin spot (pink line) shows that the rate of change in the former can reach close to 15%, while the rate of change in the latter exceeds 10%. Indicates that there is.
Similarly, the price of 21Shares Bitcoin ETP is more volatile than spots and correlates with spots less than WisdomTree (67%) and Coinbase Physical Bitcoin (66%) (62%).
The price comparisons shown above suggest that there is a price difference between the markets between the ETP price and the Bitcoin spot price from the exchange. Price inequality is not arbitrage fast enough to prevent manipulation.
However, it is important to emphasize that this is only a very rough comparison using daily data. The price difference may be due to the different cutoff times that each ETP uses to calculate the price at the end of the day. In other words, listed trading products are not traded 24 hours a day like crypto spot prices. They trade between 9:30 am and 4 pm, which is the normal trading time of the exchange.
Also, in practice, a much higher frequency is used to calculate the index price. In other words, the BZX exchange proposal proposes to use the data from the last 5 minutes from 5 exchanges to calculate the index price and update the intraday index value (IIV) per share. .. 15 seconds. The analysis performed here uses only daily aggregate data to substitute the index price and may not reflect the actual index price with high frequency data.
As shown in the graph below, price discrepancies between ETPs and spot prices can be observed using daily data, but it is worth pointing out that price discrepancies between ETPs themselves are much smaller. ..
All of these ETPs listed on the same exchange are very likely to calculate prices using the same frequency and cutoff time. Therefore, the price difference will be smaller between them. This reinforces that the price difference between Bitcoin ETP and Bitcoin spot prices can be due to the frequency and cutoff time used in the ETP index calculation methodology. This cannot be reproduced in exactly the same way in this analysis.
Spot price gaps between exchanges are minimal
In the first concern mentioned at the beginning of the article, the SEC also asked how closely Bitcoin prices are coordinated among the various Bitcoin exchanges.
Based on cross-platform BTC / USD data Collected From the 18 exchanges from Cryptowatch, the exchange price difference is very small. As an example of how well the prices match each other, compare Coinbase, Gemini, and Bitstamp to Kraken, and the correlation between each pair is very close to 100%.
The SEC is also concerned about price impacts and operational potential from spot platforms that are not part of the index. If Bitcoin prices from other platforms differ significantly from the four configuration platforms, Bitstamp, Coinbase Gemini, and Kuraken market manipulators may try to take advantage of the inequality for profit.
To see if there is a price difference between the four platforms and the other platforms, the bottom right graph below shows the sum of the volume-weighted medians of the four platforms and the prices of all 18 exchanges. We are comparing the totals. Nearly perfectly aligned lines show that there is little difference between the two. There is no big price difference on the Spot Platform, and prices are closely coordinated among the various Bitcoin exchanges.
These great similarities in daily prices make manipulating between exchanges very difficult. However, price fixing can occur during the day, but it is beyond the scope of this analysis due to the lack of frequent daytime data.
Based on an analysis of the three ETP prices listed on the SIX Swiss Exchange and the Bitcoin spot prices on 18 exchanges, there appears to be a price difference between ETPs and spots. Even if applicants frequently insist that advanced index calculation methodologies prevent such behavior, this could potentially lead to manipulation towards ETP index prices.
The SEC’s concerns about fraud and manipulation appear to be justified based on the price difference between these European-listed ETPs and spot prices. However, this difference can be caused by the daily data frequency used in this analysis. This is different from the high frequency data that is actually used.
On the contrary, there is no big price difference between different Bitcoin exchanges. While the spot markets at these venues are more decentralized and less regulated than traditional stock exchanges, malicious price fixing across these platforms can still be very difficult.
Given the large number of centralized and decentralized, regulated and unregulated crypto exchanges out there, it is very difficult to prove the price efficiency and similarity of all of them. US ETP applicants have a long way to go before persuading the SEC.
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